HMG
HMG / Courtland Properties Inc
stock NYSEAMERICAN

The costing tells you that actual production costs for the same levels of content are near identical. Today. For un-optimized programs. I blocked out the line items b/c it's data they sell. I posted that b/c it was clear you don't understand the actual production costs of EV's today let alone how it will develop in the time periods you actually want to model.
OEMs fight for SINGLE dollars b/c net profit on vehicles is often well <$2k. So when you talk about low cost producers, yes $100 is very material to OEMs. But in a developed robotaxi scenario (with 400k+ veh life) you can see everyone can provide a vehicle at ~ the same $/mi, especially once they're actually oriented to that developed mkt.
Also, do not confuse profit w/cost. In this scenario consumer willingness to pay is irrelevant. We just care about cost. Moreover don't forget the fact Tesla US ops gets $7,500 (<$300k agi) + ~$2,500 IRA split per car that most competitors don't get and is keeping them above water.
As far as paying supplier margin, well, do you know how the OEMs sell when overcapacitized to mkt? They sell to fleets at cost and lease with crazy RVG's with no profit *all the time*. Even if you wanted to model just near term Ioniq 5 with modest margin to HMG (they're struggling to sell a single shift but it has a lower production cost than the vehicle in the imgur link), what do you think the **per mi** cost delta would be to a Model Y at reasonable volumes for Waymo? *Order of pennies.* In a ride-hail mkt today that operates on $2.50+/mi revenue.
Again, I don't think the next handful of years are very interesting to model. This is all very early, and just starting to attack ride hail mkt, when the prize is a significant share of transport in the West. You need to be modeling what the developed mkt looks like.

Did you view the costing link? That figure is from a converted compliance program, not optimized clean sheet. I'm unclear how the conclusion isn't straightforward. Can you explain your interpretation?
Initially Waymo will purchase from an OEM (Zeekr --> Hyundai Ioniq 5) that will have a Waymo "trim" (secondary e/e pkg, coolant branch, sensor panel cutouts, ...). They likely get very beneficial terms b/c many OEMs are overcapacitized & purchased for EV's and would kill for increased amort/vol (See Ford using MEB in EU). Hyundai is even pitching itself as a literal "robotaxi foundry". HMG is having to scramble to fill it's new metaplant which is targeted for 500k/yr.
Now, if you're talking about 2-seater bespoke designs at very significant volume years from now driving some material cost savings (cap/op) vs an Ioniq 5, yes, absolutely, but that is not very interesting dynamically. Whatever the highest ROI form factor the design will flow to that spot. Do you think OEMs can't design sub-compacts using their platforms? Hell, the cybercab is a [VW XL1 clone](https://www.caranddriver.com/reviews/a15126025/volkswagen-xl1-concept-first-drive-review/) right down to the doors. Design cycle times for EV's on extant platforms are down to ~18mo.
If you are actually going to model the mkt surely you can see the knock-on effects of low cost autonomy means OEMs all have re-orient their businesses and align with intelligence providers. It's not just mkt opportunity, it's existential for them. There are more OEMs than intelligence providers.

The costing tells you that actual production costs for the same levels of content are near identical. Today. For un-optimized programs. I blocked out the line items b/c it's data they sell. I posted that b/c it was clear you don't understand the actual production costs of EV's today let alone how it will develop in the time periods you actually want to model.
OEMs fight for SINGLE dollars b/c net profit on vehicles is often well <$2k. So when you talk about low cost producers, yes $100 is very material to OEMs. But in a developed robotaxi scenario (with 400k+ veh life) you can see everyone can provide a vehicle at ~ the same $/mi, especially once they're actually oriented to that developed mkt.
Also, do not confuse profit w/cost. In this scenario consumer willingness to pay is irrelevant. We just care about cost. Moreover don't forget the fact Tesla US ops gets $7,500 (<$300k agi) + ~$2,500 IRA split per car that most competitors don't get and is keeping them above water.
As far as paying supplier margin, well, do you know how the OEMs sell when overcapacitized to mkt? They sell to fleets at cost and lease with crazy RVG's with no profit *all the time*. Even if you wanted to model just near term Ioniq 5 with modest margin to HMG (they're struggling to sell a single shift but it has a lower production cost than the vehicle in the imgur link), what do you think the **per mi** cost delta would be to a Model Y at reasonable volumes for Waymo? *Order of pennies.* In a ride-hail mkt today that operates on $2.50+/mi revenue.
Again, I don't think the next handful of years are very interesting to model. This is all very early, and just starting to attack ride hail mkt, when the prize is a significant share of transport in the West. You need to be modeling what the developed mkt looks like.

Did you view the costing link? That figure is from a converted compliance program, not optimized clean sheet. I'm unclear how the conclusion isn't straightforward. Can you explain your interpretation?
Initially Waymo will purchase from an OEM (Zeekr --> Hyundai Ioniq 5) that will have a Waymo "trim" (secondary e/e pkg, coolant branch, sensor panel cutouts, ...). They likely get very beneficial terms b/c many OEMs are overcapacitized & purchased for EV's and would kill for increased amort/vol (See Ford using MEB in EU). Hyundai is even pitching itself as a literal "robotaxi foundry". HMG is having to scramble to fill it's new metaplant which is targeted for 500k/yr.
Now, if you're talking about 2-seater bespoke designs at very significant volume years from now driving some material cost savings (cap/op) vs an Ioniq 5, yes, absolutely, but that is not very interesting dynamically. Whatever the highest ROI form factor the design will flow to that spot. Do you think OEMs can't design sub-compacts using their platforms? Hell, the cybercab is a [VW XL1 clone](https://www.caranddriver.com/reviews/a15126025/volkswagen-xl1-concept-first-drive-review/) right down to the doors. Design cycle times for EV's on extant platforms are down to ~18mo.
If you are actually going to model the mkt surely you can see the knock-on effects of low cost autonomy means OEMs all have re-orient their businesses and align with intelligence providers. It's not just mkt opportunity, it's existential for them. There are more OEMs than intelligence providers.