AYR
Aircastle Limited
stock NYSE

They are toast.
Others will become toast 🥲
Back in Q1, AYR had $0.43 for every $1.00 in current liabilities. Cura, Terra, Verano, and Jushi were also worse. AYR did have the worst net income, but all of them were negative in the tens of millions with no prospect of becoming profitable.
I would expect all of them needing to doing a material degree of restructuring in the next 3 months.
If you throw 280E in would add Ascend to that list.
GTI, Truleive, and Cresco look safe but others varying degree of toast 🥲

AYR is toast. I think they’re in the worst shape but you can certainly say there are others in as bad as shape as them. Any type of rescheduling news will be too little too late unfortunately

CCare will get their turn. They've been on the shortlist for awhile now, alongside AYR and others.
Fwiw, on your AYR shares...sell now. Take what you can get, even if it's pennies, and move on. There's very little sense in holding at this point. Even a 50% move is only going to net you a few extra sheckles. Get the monkey off your back, salvage a bit of cash, put it to work elsewhere, on something with a strong balance sheet this time around.

I wasn't looking to invest in AYR, I was wondering what might happen yo the shares I am down 99% on. I know there have been other bankruptcies and restructuring and acquisitions in this sector, so I was looking at insight into what may happen in the restructuring.

>Any long term bag holders want to inform the rest of us what is likely to happen to what remains of my AYR shares?
Probably not much value left for shareholders as it will be tough to get any return on what is remaining.
Senior note holders have taken everything of value (Florida, Ohio, Nevada, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Virginia). They have formed a new company that swallows these assets and in turn will write off some debt but not all
So that leaves Ayr with Illinois, Connecticut and Massachusetts which will be under liquidation. These assets aren't as valuable (hence why note holders didn't want them). So shareholders will get whatever is left over after these assets are sold, above the debt remaining.

Any long term bag holders want to inform the rest of us what is likely to happen to what remains of my AYR shares?
Think any company is likely to buy out assets for a share swap?
Think the receivership will scrap what remains for parts?
Think it lingers at 0 for years like medmen?
What you think then possibilities are?

The final death knell for AYR was Ron DeSantis opposing Amendment 3 in Florida.
So tired of hearing MAGA folks saying Trump is good for cannabis or re-posting his cannabis comments saying he’ll reschedule.

The writing was on the wall for AYR at the election, and all of 2024 (even before) tons of warning signs and red flags were there. When I got into this sector in 2021 I had positions in Curaleaf, Verano and others, etc. and over the years I shifted into the better players. Like all sectors in all businesses there are winners and there are losers, you need to constantly be monitoring these companies, it's not passive investment at all.

AYR Wellness Enters Into Restructuring Support Agreement with Senior Noteholders