AMD Reddit Mentions | ChartExchange

"It reminds me of the old "Nifty Fifty" story – a group of "can't lose" stocks that everyone owned... until they didn't. Are we seeing a similar kind of concentration risk building up under the surface? (Not saying this for NVIDIA, but TSLA might be a good example with the crazy current P/E.)"
The problem with "can't lose" or "stock is dead" is that both are often vague, gut-based answers by people who haven't really done any research, any DD of the company, don't understand what the company does, how it makes money, risks, competition, anything.
TSLA is mostly a bunch of guys who think Elon is Iron Man. People who have never worked in a factory, have no idea about the demands for robotics, have seen no product, no orders, but say they'll sell a trillion dollars worth. I've heard people say "NVDA has CUDA" and I say "OK, and what does CUDA do", and they can't answer it. Now, I'm not saying NVDA are a bad company at all, but a lot of people analysing have just seen LINE GOES UP and are convincing themselves the magic can only continue and make arguments to defend it, and will not even countenance the risk.
Me, I don't know a lot about NVDA. Like I say, they seem like a good solid company. But do I believe AMD, Google's TPU, Amazon's tech, various Chinese RISC-V companies aren't all trying to grab a slice of it? Yes. Will they do it? Don't have a clue. But someone comes up with a well-priced rival, NVDA aren't going to print money like they are. Do I know if demand is going to keep rising for training? Nope. Not a clue. But I can see diminishing returns with it, so it's a possibility that demand slows.
The risk to me with "can't lose" is it gets priced in. Even if that turns out to be true, you don't get much margin. And if it's wrong, it's a big hit.
My own investment philosophy is actually driven by "stock is dead" talk. I'm fundamentally a counter-group investor. Where people list a sort of precis of a stock and every point is negative, none of the risks are quantified. They haven't measured it, they've just decided it's bad and are trying to defend their thinking. Sure, sometimes, the stock IS garbage, but actual research can lead you to realising that the risks are being wildly overstated.
I will add: ETFs can be viewed as value investing. You're just betting on something bigger than a single company. Maybe a country, or a market. I bought into a China Internet ETF. I don't particularly know if BABA is better than JD, but I'm generally betting on the Chinese retail economy improving. It was cheap, so seems like value. On the other hand, I think US stocks are overpriced. When they take a tumble and everyone starts running to the hills, swearing never to touch US stocks again, market is dead, I'll look at them again.

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