BTCUSDT20240426P30000
Bitcoin / Tether USD Apr 26 2024 30000.00 Put
crypto

The price is based purely on market sentiment. People try to quantify or rationalize that the market sentiment will continue to increase the price, but that’s a guess based purely on vibes.
Inversely it’s impossible to say with certainty it will go down in price.
Seems more relevant to speculate on if BTC will be adopted for more actual use cases in the future than what the price will do

I agree up to the point when you start to argue against alts based on their price history. BTC is also cheaper now than several years ago...

You should finish the eth chart where it continues to lag BTC and sol

No I actually don’t have much into BTC, was just simply saying that fiat flows into all of these assets

Mixing BTC can still help with privacy and fungibility, but it’s riskier today.

I think the breakout can start as soon as today or definitely by next week. $72 is the line in the sand: close above that and the shorts who piled in below $100 start covering in size. On October 28th I told everybody to get $110 December puts at a $3.50 premium which are now at $41. That is an over 1000% return that I tried posting in this very sub and for some reason it got modded out...restrictions a little too tight maybe? Blame them cause I tried to warn you all.
The turnaround is now depending on where it closes today, if on decent volume and, more importantly, the first green candle in weeks that actually holds the low. RSI is sitting at 16—literally the most oversold reading since the IPO. Bitcoin is grinding just under $88k and showing the same coiled-spring look it had right before the post-election rip. The two trade almost lockstep (0.86 correlation over the last 90 days), so if BTC clears $90k this week—and a lot of flows suggest it will—Circle is going with it.
Holiday-thinned tape actually helps—big moves happen fast when liquidity is light. My base case is $82–85 inside of two weeks, then $100–105 by mid-January once BTC punches through $100k (which I still expect before February). I just bought my first two positions on the long side in the high 60's. I’ve already pivoted on the options contracts as well, began closing out my puts and then added small tranches of the following contracts (all premiums are averages):
1. Jan-26 $70 calls @ $8.39
2. Feb-26 $80 calls @ $7.38
3. Mar-26 $90 calls @ $6.63
If I’m wrong and we tag $66 first, I’ll add aggressively—same way I added on the short side when it cracked $125. But conviction is high that the low is in. Cheap enough to hold through any retest, explosive enough if we get the follow-through.
**1–3 Months**
Bitcoin eclipses $100k for the first time. Institutional flows that have been building since the April halving finally break the range. $CRCL is still 0.85+ correlated to BTC on a 90-day rolling basis. Every prior $10k leg higher in BTC has lifted Circle 18–25 % within 30–45 days. That math alone takes $70 → $95–$105 by Presidents’ Day. Add in the fact that the worst of the Fed yield compression is now fully priced (Q4 interest income already reflected the cuts) and the stock is trading below 7× run-rate EBITDA. First leg: $100–105.
**4–6 Months**
BTC pushes $155–160k. Spot ETF inflows compound, Trump administration crypto policy becomes concrete, and the 2025–2026 bull market narrative is in full swing. Circle laps the toughest interest-income comps and if circulation starts growing again (it always lags BTC by 2–3 months), and the multiple re-rates from today’s depressed 22× forward earnings toward the 35–40× fintech growth bucket. Target zone: $135–148.
**12 Months**
BTC $195–215k. Stablecoin total supply crosses $500B (it’s $180B today). Circle owns 22–25 % of that pie and is finally generating real fee revenue from Arc, Spark, and cross-chain volume instead of just parking cash in T-bills. Fair value north of $180/share, possibly $200+ on a takeout multiple.

Fucking sell kid. Never look back. You have your money in a shitcoin. This is pure gambling. But congrats, due to luck, you beat the house.
Now walk away and never come back. Or put your money into BTC/ETH and just kick your feet up

That's the problem with BTC. That's why I avoided it for the longest time we evaluate in dollars. 
The problem is as I and most of us have found out that those dollars won't be worth dollars in 10 years they will be the equivalent to spare change.

BTC is the escape.

BTC → XMR → BTC can help break the direct chain link, but it’s not a magic privacy button. The biggest factor is *how* you handle the BTC legs. If you’re sending from a KYC exchange straight back to the same place, the privacy benefit is basically zero. Fresh addresses, spacing transactions out, and not creating an obvious “in/out” pattern usually matter more than the swap path itself.
On the XMR side you’re fine — it’s private by default — but the BTC entries and exits are where most people accidentally leak info. In my case, separating where I buy/sell, avoiding address reuse, and not rushing both swaps back-to-back made a noticeable difference.
I picked up the habit of comparing swap routes from hanging around Rubic, and Rubic itself is just something I use for cross-chain swaps — nothing fancy, just practical.
If you want, I can break down the common privacy pitfalls people hit with this method.

How to we get a separate sub to have meaningful discussion these days? I don’t mean “complaining” allowed. More to the extent that individuals can critique without worrying someone will scour your post history.
I think RC purchasing BTC was stupid. And his reason for it as “a hedge against inflation” is even dumber. To avoid just complaining my proposed solution is he spins it as an extension of the core collectibles business. But i’ll get smacked around here for even hinting RC isn’t a god, or a legend, or a genius…

This is just my opinion, but by that point I think it's likely nickels will have been phased out just like the penny was. Transactions will be rounded as they are now, to avoid the need for anything less. I believe that BTC will be a reserve currency and continue to be a hedge against inflation, but that it's main use case would continue to be a store of value.

I think that any sort of day to day purchases would be swapped from Bitcoin, so if you wanted to go to a store and buy things you would be converting BTC to Walmart Coin for example. Large or cross border transactions will probably just be Bitcoin as it provides significantly less friction than needing to go through nostro vostro for conversions.
\-Nick

Start with 15-20% of the capital (gold coins). As you are in for a long tenure, buy BTC for that capital and after that:
1 - if BTC increases, you would get the gains;
2 - if BTC falls more 5-10%, use another 15-20% of remaining capital (gold coins) to buy more.
Both are WIN WIN in longer period of time

That's a fair view, but i expect BTC to outperform stocks for at least the next 10 years, that's why i stay invested

Weak assets (cash) flow to stronger assets over time (BTC, commodities, stonks)

“You’re paying how much for those things? $500 a piece?! And what do they do exactly?”
My family members when I first started telling them about BTC ten years ago.

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I wonder what happened to the BTC received by the other guy? Did he sell it all? If so, maybe he needs to catch some strays too.

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Units
7 years ago we already increased the divisibility in bitcoin payment channels for microsats/msats or 1/1000 of a BTC . So even if a Bitcoin was worth 100 million usd a BTC you can still spend msats worth 1/10 of one penny
I don't think we will need more divisibility than 13 decimal places for a long time.

BTC exists to be used outside state control.
No need to use govt approved exchanges ;-)