BTCUSDT20240317C76250
Bitcoin / Tether USD Mar 17 2024 76250.00 Call
crypto

Yeah but that's what makes it financially impossible, people would need to literally start selling other commodities which would collapse prices of daily goods, stop investing in stock which you reduce the capital for companies to develop, sell housing stock which would reduce the housing market... Like to get bitcoin to a million, the amount of investment it takes as it's not just market cap but you also need people to still want to buy at that price WHILE AT THE SAME TIME those sorts of funds being available... And it can't happen, by the time BTC would be that heavily invested there wouldn't be those millions to continue pumping in, you've hit the critical point where the dollar is a meaningless measurement to weight BTC against... It is literally financially impossible, economics doesn't allow it, it isn't just unlikely, it can not happen.

In 2125, the combined work of alle the worlds mining pools will release about 0.00009 BTC into circulation every week.
What are the chances that your grandchildren will still hold some of your bitcoin by then?
Will they be well off by your foresight?
..or will all of it have been sold of long ago, to someone with more stamina for longterm hodling?
Your thoughts?

Nobody has lost big holding BTC for years. Facts.

Pretty much all BOT controlled. Certainly the early selling when BTC dips. Market is horrible. AI and influx of coins has taken all the liquidity away, people gambling their lifes away on a meme token that rug pulls in 10mins. Annnnddd itss gone. Crypto once was fun, now stagnant. Controlled by all big players something we wanted to getaway from with FIAT.

That's okay. I like BSV because it has very low transaction fees and the block size is not restricted. This means that there can be a lot of transaction volume on the blockchain without causing the transaction fees to increase substantially. Transaction fees may even lower due to economies of scale.
As more blockchain app developers find out about these fundamentals of BSV, I think more of them will use it, creating a real world demand and not just for investment. People will move towards the chain that has the most reliability and lowest fees for blockchain applications.
You should find out about the price manipulation of BTC via printing of Tether coins. New Tether coins are being printed on exchanges and they are being used to buy BTC, pushing up the price of BTC. But if nobody is really paying for Tether with dollars and they are being created from nothing, this makes the price of BTC artificial, and we don't know what the real price is.

I'm confident ETH will continue some of it's momentum and improve it's ETH/BTC ratio. Congrats to those who bought under 2k, 3k and even 4k!
!tip 1

What spike?
It is climbing at steady growth rate for the last 6 years with only a temporary dip in August 2021.
Very very closely following the BTC price growth on the long scale.
Looking at hash rate with less than 30 day average is not meaningful. There is to much variantion from chance to make any conclusions.

Yeah and BTC eats up a lot of that value by itself.

Sorry what I meant to say was BTC the 110k one. SV the price is low and hasn't budged or moved alot. Oh I actually did not know the BTC team stole and altered the protocol. Well if you don't like BTC maybe buy Ethereum ETH grey topaz gem or the ETC Ethereum classic green emerald gem.

Diversify. Got BTC, ETH, TAO, LINK und AVAX. Don’t like SOL.

Using high leverage can work out but comes with extreme risk and most often will get you rekt.
My one time where it hit was in July when I longer BTC at 36x lev entry over 119k and closed the long after waking up manually, made around 7k but wouldn’t advise such idiocy to anyone and not bragging at all. Very stupid thing to do.
Leverage is a tool and as a hammer 🔨can get your job done, it can also injure you if used incorrectly.
Low leverage is usually the way, but also remember getting a good entry can make the trade so much easier, even enjoyable. Watch for liquidation levels, I follow one guy who posts them daily. If you stay within the ranges, you’re usually safe enough.
Don’t use scammy platforms. I like HyperLiquid as it’s fairer and the UI is great. Trades are executed on chain and so fewer scam wicks

Real estate loses against BTC but wins against inflation

Point 4 is not a guarantee, these entities will see when faced with the decision to stay afloat or not.
Diminishing returns may prove to be damning to BTC in the long term.

Why a "full" BTC? That's like wanting a "full" company instead of just some shares..

BTC: The battle for the most trusted third party...

BTC is expensive.

The only BTC staking platform I'm aware of is ExSat.

Can _afford_ to lose. Have an emergency fund ready, so you don't have to sell BTC when things happen. It's good advice.

My girlfriend recently decided to invest in Bitcoin and wired money to Coinbase to buy BTC. The transfer was completed, the bank confirmed the funds were sent, and even Coinbase acknowledged they had received the money.
But here’s the problem: the funds never showed up in her Coinbase account. For **over two weeks now**, we’ve been going back and forth with their support. Every time, they just give vague answers like *“please wait”* or *“we’ll return the money to your bank account soon.”* Nothing happens. No BTC, no refund. The money is just stuck in limbo.
We’ve checked everything from our side and with the bank—no issues there. The problem is entirely on Coinbase’s end and they cannot (or will not) explain why the money isn’t being credited. We’re now filing a police report.
Be extremely careful if you’re thinking of sending money to Coinbase. If something goes wrong, you might end up in the same situation: your money gone, and support that just drags things out without fixing it.

Despite what many in this sub think, I see the opportunity to participate in the growth of authentic, bottom-up, on-chain communities (memecoins imo is a misnomer) as the deepest value bet of this crypto cycle. **As crazy as this sounds, I see this is actually investing in mini emerging Network States of the future.**
For context, this is my third cycle and I've been angel investing in web3/defi since 2020 so my opinion comes from following the public crypto scene but also from seeing quite some dynamics behind the curtains.
# Why tokenized communities
The distribution of money inflows towards alternative crypto assets (i.e. everything outside of BTC, ETH and the other majors) has been imo structurally different this cycle from past ones. 
This comes down to several factors:
* Since 2018, the post-ICO capital formation for crypto “*utility/ technology*” projects has been primarily driven by venture capital and this has relegated most of the FDV growth to private rounds.
* When listing on centralized exchanges, this cycle’s projects have been launching at insane valuations (often in the billions dollars) with little to no fundamentals and no community mobilized around the token. Almost all new launches on Binance in ‘24 and ‘25 have literally been down-only, and retail has been treated as exit liquidity in a particularly extractive way.
* Several tech projects have a large part of their supply still unvested and they have a low-float/high FDV problem. Binance Research estimates that over $150B of unlocks (at current valuations) are due over the next 3 years and this will likely be a massive headwind to alts valuations
* The supply of most tech-alts is extremely centralized. It’s not uncommon to see 70+% of the supply to be controlled by 7/8 wallets, typically the foundation, individual team members and VCs/ large angels. This is definitely far from the original crypto ethos and for an industry so obsessed with decentralization it sounds counterintuitive to say the least.
* More and more people are coming to question the very same notion of “*utility*” for tech tokens. These are often completely detached from the underlying product or application, which in turn is not producing revenues or cashflow to justify their valuations.
The above has led to the development - especially in 2023-24 - of new “*tokenized communities*”, i.e. global online groups - each with their own identity, culture, lore and purpose - which use the  token as their banner and as their collective Schelling point to gather around. 
Also labeled memecoins, the best ones are organically distributed among hundreds of thousands of holders, are very decentralized, the supply is fully circulating (no unlocks) and have very strong, active and passionate communities which exist independently of the financial incentives that the token provides. 
While some criticize memecoins for having “*no utility*”, I believe that the marginal value for the average holder and participant is non-zero and possibly even greater than for tech-alts. It lies in the purpose, the belonging, the adventure, the mission, the meaning, the connections and the network that participants develop by being part of this collective, akin to being part of the same guild in that MMORPG (massively multiplayer online role-playing game) that is crypto.
In a context where the growth of most altcoins has been muted so far, top organic memecoins have been the real outperformers, representing 6 out of the 10 top performing tokens of 2024. As people come to realize that “*the best products don’t need a token, and the best tokens don’t need a product*”, memecoins are stealing the narrative and speculative premia away from altcoins valuations.
Historically, the top performing categories of year 3 of the cycle (in this case 2024) have continued to outperform in year 4 (2025). As a result, I see in this category the greatest potential as we approach the last 6-10 months where most price action has historically been concentrated.
For a deeper understanding of memecoins I'd recommend you [this video from Token 2049](https://youtu.be/6nqzwdGxTGc)
 in October ‘24.
# How I look at each community comparatively
Within the memecoin category, I believe that those launched in 2023/24 are actually showing the deepest value. Ultimately I believe you need a "landing strip" equevalent of time for the community to really form, consolidate and take off. I call this at least 1-2 years in which ideally the community has been battle-tested and survived multiple -80% drawdowns. So I'm not talking about the "*flavor or the day*" pump-fun garbage here.
Being completely unlocked, all holders dynamics are visible on-chain and so it is possible to look at each of these emerging tokenized groups quantitatively. Some of the most interesting and objective factors to look at are
* Holders distribution, as measured as HHI (Herfindahl-Hirschman Index, which measures market concentration) and Gini coefficient
* Holders decentralization, as measured by the absence of relevant wallet clusters and sniping (checkable on-chain or e.g.with the help of BubbleMaps)
* Holders growth rate across the 4 chains where SPX resides: ETH (main), SOL, BASE and SUI
* Mean and average amounts held per holder. To exclude dust (especially on the cheaper chains i.e. Solana and Base) it's insighful to look at the percentage of holders above $1k, $10k and $100k. Higher percentages ultimately speaks to higher level of “inspiration per capita” among the holder base
* Various metrics of social mentions and participation, both on X, TikTok and other social media platforms. One could even bake this into a “*media creation per market cap*” metric, which again is a proxy for the activity of the holders and the free labor they are willing to put it for their coin
* Price strength in surviving multiple -80% corrections, visible most recently in the market uncertainty of Q2’25 post-tariffs.
The main image of this post shows a comparative analysis of the main memecoins of the 2023-24 vintage updated as of today.
# Why now
While the past 3 cycles were almost 4 years to the dot, I wouldn't be surprised if this present cycle extends a little longer. Imo the business cycle (especially in US) hasn't played out yet, the story of lower interests rates has just begun and the overall pessimism in most participants make me inclined to believe that we are still not yet close to a top. Plus retail is still not here.
Of course I may be wrong, but I can personnally see 6-12 months of bullishness left. A few considerations supporting this view:
* Numerous analysts are comparing BTC & crypto growth to the global M2 money supply which has been expanding since early 2023 as a result of easing global monetary conditions. BTC seems to be tracking the M2 chart with an approx. 2-3 months delay. As the monetary supply keeps increasing, this is bullish for BTC (and therefore the broader crypto market) for the next few months where we have visibility.
* Arthur Hayes (founder of Bitmex and macro analyst) sees BTC rallying up to $250k by end of 2025, which would mark in his view the ATH for this cycle, or could potentially extend to early 2026.
* Ethereum has been surging recently and it has approached its ATH in August after an almost 4-year long consolidation. It currently has a major tailwind from ETFs and major Digital Asset Trasuries which are accumulating heavily. Tom Lee of FundStrat and BitMine in particular has recently expressed views for a macro bull market continuation potentially even up to 2035 (peak of the millenials generation) which surely with ups and downs could support a sustained uptrend.
* The last 6 months of the fourth year of the cycle (in this case, H2 2025 to H2 2026) have historically been where most of the price action concentrates for crypto assets.
*Note: take the analysts view with the pitch of salt, not for the exact numbers they cite but more for a broader directional idea.*
I think we are currently at a sweet spot for positioning in memecoins, and it can be a valuable opportunity for net new participants or those who remained sidelined in H1-25.
Of course I'd love to know what you guys think. I suspect many here may have a lot more attachment to utility altcoins (totally understand, I've been there too and I spent years angel inveting in protocols) so I look forward to the discussion!