BTCUSDT20240121P41500
Bitcoin / Tether USD Jan 21 2024 41500.00 Put
crypto

I recently did a total return backtest and was surprised that since its inception BITY had outperformed BTC, BITO, BTCI and MSTY.. Very nice performance from one my favorite cover call ETF providers Amplify.
BTC,BITO,BTCI,BITY Stock Chart (Dividends Reinvested, Inflation Adjusted) | Total Real Returns https://share.google/gf3Z9fjV0IRfS5o8e

1500 ppl own 11-12 million BCH out of the distribution.
Looks very much decentralized and real usage! /s
P.S. I use both BTC and BCH. To sit there and act like BCH has better distribution is goofy as hell.

For years, Bitcoin has been described as digital gold, a store of value with limited utility in DeFi compared to Ethereum and other programmable chains. But lately, that narrative is shifting. The rise of Bitcoin DeFi protocols has shown that BTC doesn’t have to just sit idle in cold wallets, it can actually be put to work.
We’ve seen examples like Solv, which opened the door to structured products around BTC, and PumpBTC, which experimented with on-chain liquidity mechanisms. The latest project catching my attention is Lombard ($BARD), which focuses on Bitcoin liquid staking. Instead of locking BTC away, users can stake it with Babylon and receive LBTC, a yield-bearing token that stays liquid. That means your BTC earns staking rewards, but you can still deploy LBTC across DeFi for lending, trading, or liquidity.
The adoption numbers have been wild, LBTC hit $1 billion TVL in just 92 days, capturing a serious share of the Bitcoin staking market. For a protocol that’s barely a year old, that speed says a lot about demand.
What excites me most here is the broader implication: Bitcoin isn’t just the passive backbone of crypto anymore. With projects like Lombard, it’s stepping into a role where it can actively drive yield and liquidity, not just security. Exchanges like Bitget listing these protocols early also signals that Bitcoin DeFi is becoming too big to ignore.
Curious to hear what others think: does Bitcoin staking become a norm, or will ETH still dominate DeFi’s yield narrative?

There is a selling tipping point and it hasn't happened yet.
In other news, That rich list shows that the first tear of BTC addresses have effectively been removed from the pool. Those addresses can't cover the fee to move them.
The second tear, have to pay over 10% to access those bitcoin rendering the value useless meaning they dip 10% below market the minute they are used. That means they are effectively 20% below market (10% use, + 10% consolidate unspent output) basically the receiver also has to move them to make use of the bitcoin.
it's not a lot of bitcoin I here you say, this phenomenon is and will continue to grow.

It's fun to see the "China bans BTC" play being used for NVDA now.
Guarantee this flip flops every other quarter for the next 2 years

BREAKING NEWS!!! PANEL OF THE LARGEST BTC HOLDERS GO TO WASHINGTON TO BEG THE GOVERNMENT TO BUY ON TOP OF THEIR POSITIONS!!!!

Personally I closed every holding in my portfolio except bitcoin. If they double cut or talk about easing I'll scale up BTC. If it's cuts as expected or hawkish/depending on guidance it's likely this is a sell the news event given rates are baked in to market prices.

Fun one, BTC RCAT 01/15/2027 25.00 P for 16.41 for $207 total profit. I opened this for 18.50 in November with RCAT IV was 200+. Works out to \~31% gain on risk.

I also built a BTC prediction model, but it gives prediction on Daily closing and holds for 4 days..... And cumulative return over past 2.5 years is \~164,884 with fixed 1 lot, where BTC only gave \~90,269 points. Also my maximum drawdown is 15% in the initial days as DD reduced along way as Balance went UP and I traded with fixed lots.
Open for conversation. Also I am currently willing to lend it out.

OP, as the others have said, we are nearing the end of this btc cycle, so after November, expect a steady crypto market decline over the next two years with a few dead cat bounces early on. Since you have no experience or insider connections, I highly highly recommend that you only stick with larger exchanges (eg coinbase, kraken) and for the first year, only investing in BTC. It's the king because it's the only one that reliably recovers each cycle. Everything else bleeds out to BTC long term

BTC, MDB Call Spread for +40%

Hello u/InTheMix182
[You have](/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1nj31r9/daily_discussion_wednesday_september_17_2025/nepr429/) **Longed ₿4.32171915** ($500,000.00 worth of BTC at the execution price of $115,694.70)
You have chosen 100X leverage: You have borrowed $495,000.00 from the Bitty Bot Bank and spent $5,000.00 from your cash balance.
**Liquidation Price: $114,537.75**
You have not set a stop loss or a take profit price for this trade.
After opening this trade, your remaining cash balance is -$252,473.54
Good luck!

How about them Q2 Earnings?!? Excellent stuff on all fronts from the board again and I'm already excited for Q3.
There's a serious lack of analyst coverage on GME and even the ones that do cover it are usually lacking in seriousness, so here's my quarterly effort at providing at least some additional outlook for where earnings might go from here.
**I've got the initial estimate at $0.28/$0.21 for basic/diluted earnings.** That would be a 700% YOY increase if I'm anywhere in the right ballpark.
Here's the quick outlook! Hope you find it useful.
# Condensed Statements of Operations
||Q3 2025|Q3 2024|
|:-|:-|:-|
|Net sales|1008.8|860.3|
|Cost of sales|696.1|603.1|
|Gross profit|312.7|257.2|
|Selling, general and administrative expenses|272.4|282|
|Asset Impairments|0.0|8.6|
|Operating income (loss)|40.4|\-33.4|
|Interest income, net|88.0|54.2|
|Unrealized gain on digital assets|||
|Income before income taxes|128.4|20.8|
|Income tax expense|4.2|3.4|
|Net income|124.2|17.4|
||||
|Net income per share:|||
|Basic Income per share|0.28|0.04|
|Diluted income per share|0.21|0.04|
||||
|Weighted-average common shares outstanding:|||
|Basic|447.4|437.4|
|Diluted|605.5|437.9​|

I'm not sure if the new diluted float will include the 59M warrants or not, but I added them here.
Extreme BTC price movements could have a big swing here, but I'll plug in a number for that at the close of the quarter.
I did a few passes at this with various COGS, SGA and Interest Income levels, and the most conservative model is down around $0.11 and the more aggressive ones get up in the $0.4 range. I like this estimate for now but might revise it as I get deeper into the Balance Sheet, Cash Flow and Revenue breakdowns, and start to see some other Q3 results and economic data roll in.

If I had 1000 BTC it sure as fuck would not be at a single address or wallet.

The issue is that 99.999% of the value is from the bitcoins on the private key under that $0.30 hologram. Is it still there? If not you lost $100M+.
I had some of those casascius coins (the 1 BTC ones not the gold 1000 BTC) a decade ago. They were a cool novelty when bitcoin was a couple bucks. Could they be faked sure but they were secure "enough" to protect a couple bucks. I long since pull the holograms and swept the keys to a private wallet. For the record they were all legit. Just too much risk to be taking for $100k+ much less $100M+.

If you are comfortable with that amount in your overall allocation and realize it is part of your most aggressive/speculative portion, then if should be fine, but only you know that. It seems reasonable with respect to the breakdown amount, as well, half to BTC and half to ETH in those ETFs. Just realize that it falls into the most aggressive part of your portfolio and make sure you would be okay if that 5% went to zero as worst case scenario.

What is needed for BTC to further de-peg itself from SPY to reach 1M?

Good idea, I didn't decide to trim BTC/ETH/SOL and buy others for now.

...the bird at the BTC maxis

Can you point towards resources to learn how the governance has become smooth.
I think many in BTC realised the severe limitations of Lightning only now. But they have.