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The NT2.5 NIO's ES6, EC6, ET5, ET5T ( "5566" ) are likely to keep to the same price previously.
As long as they don't cross the 300k RMB mark without BAAS, I think that's fine.
Why is that?
NIO is coupling a deep discount via offering 5 years worth of battery swap to the buyers who lock in their interests by Jun 2025.
I believe contrasting this with the outdated NT2.0 "5566", it will make the NT2.0 stable of "5566" sell out by May 2025 or by Jun 2025.
As their ""7788" series, ES7, EC7, ET7, ES8, EC8 move to the 900V NT3.0 platform, I believe the transition towards the latest platform would be completed with consumers' interest.
The EV buyers want a faster update than ICE buyers, because an EV is a computer on wheels, bringing about more convenience, comfort, benefits, etc.
I expect 4,000 battery swap stations to be completed by end of year 2025.
Their focus for a tighter roll-out for non-highway routes, would cause another bump / take-up in sales as it's visually more prominent to the road-users / potential NIO buyers.
With CATL being interested in battery-swap and I believe there would be other vendors trying to push for a battery-swap solution in China, NIO is positioned to be a prominent player offering battery-swap as a solution for EV charging.
There's many promises of rolling out battery-swaps from other competitors. One of them was Rising Auto.
Rising Auto's R7 was aping NIO's ET5, but it was a lot cheaper.
Where are the shop locations of Rising Auto now?
It's an affiliate to SAIC, another giant auto-legacy producer in China.
It's no more.
Give NIO some time, review its performance in 2028 &/ 2030.
If it doesn't fold in these 2 years, it will likely be China's first luxury brand that penetrates into the rank of BBA auto legacy offering to the world.
Their EU expansion failure can be fixed, as long as they do it well in China.
China is the world's largest EV market afterall, not US, for the ignorant... ( how do you know that you are ignorant? one that is likely to vote Trump into office. )

The NT2.5 NIO's ES6, EC6, ET5, ET5T ( "5566" ) are likely to keep to the same price previously.
As long as they don't cross the 300k RMB mark without BAAS, I think that's fine.
Why is that?
NIO is coupling a deep discount via offering 5 years worth of battery swap to the buyers who lock in their interests by Jun 2025.
I believe contrasting this with the outdated NT2.0 "5566", it will make the NT2.0 stable of "5566" sell out by May 2025 or by Jun 2025.
As their ""7788" series, ES7, EC7, ET7, ES8, EC8 move to the 900V NT3.0 platform, I believe the transition towards the latest platform would be completed with consumers' interest.
The EV buyers want a faster update than ICE buyers, because an EV is a computer on wheels, bringing about more convenience, comfort, benefits, etc.
I expect 4,000 battery swap stations to be completed by end of year 2025.
Their focus for a tighter roll-out for non-highway routes, would cause another bump / take-up in sales as it's visually more prominent to the road-users / potential NIO buyers.
With CATL being interested in battery-swap and I believe there would be other vendors trying to push for a battery-swap solution in China, NIO is positioned to be a prominent player offering battery-swap as a solution for EV charging.
There's many promises of rolling out battery-swaps from other competitors. One of them was Rising Auto.
Rising Auto's R7 was aping NIO's ET5, but it was a lot cheaper.
Where are the shop locations of Rising Auto now?
It's an affiliate to SAIC, another giant auto-legacy producer in China.
It's no more.
Give NIO some time, review its performance in 2028 &/ 2030.
If it doesn't fold in these 2 years, it will likely be China's first luxury brand that penetrates into the rank of BBA auto legacy offering to the world.
Their EU expansion failure can be fixed, as long as they do it well in China.
China is the world's largest EV market afterall, not US, for the ignorant... ( how do you know that you are ignorant? one that is likely to vote Trump into office. )

NT2.5 NIO's ES6, EC6, ET5, ET5T are released.
Its prices will not be as cheap as the discounted NT2.0 ES6, EC6, ET5, ET5T models.
The prices would be closer to the RMB300k pricing which it originally targets.
There's a number of features that these new releases adopts from ET9.
From here, the NT2.5 and NT3.0 will have a more distinct segmentation of the market, giving the users a more premium feedback when interacting with the EV.
NIO is not an alternative BBA auto-legacy offering.
It really is more than that.
It is your discounted Porsche offering, where it offers more.
Service-wise, it is more comprehensive. From NIO houses to one-touch subscription services, etc.
It is basically the Vertu of the EV world.
That said, it is better experienced in China than in Europe, where work ethics are lazier in the latter.
NIO holds a strong 40% of the 300k RMB onwards pricing in the Chinese EV market.
It is the largest single brand holding onto this market.
Onvo targets users with a RMB200k budget for a family sedan EV.
With BAAS, the pricing of an Onvo L60 drops to RMB150k.
With every Chinese public holiday, I expect more families to choose the NIO Group EVs.
Chiefly because of its battery swap option, which allows charging to be completed through battery swap in less than 5 mins.
I expect NIO Group to expect Onvo and Firefly to sell well in the export market.
Why is that?
Labour is cheap in China.
It is difficult to translate the high level of service available in China to other markets.
I believe NIO tried to pitch to Singapore, where it is used as a testbed for global concepts.
However, I believe the pitch between William Li, CEO of NIO group, and Lawrence Wong, then the deputy prime minister and presently the prime minister of Singapore didn't take off.
With the immense failure of NIO sales in Europe, with the lacklustre sales there... I believe Onvo and Firefly are the main vehicles to drive export market sales for NIO group.
Onvo's EV designer was an ex-Bentley designer.
The L60 provides the maximum bang-for-buck in that sense and it outclasses Tesla's model Y in almost every metric.
Why isn't Onvo doing well in China right now?
\- The current deep deflation climate.
\- That said, why isn't that affecting Tesla's model 3 and model Y sales in China?
\- More time is needed for Onvo to gain brand awareness in the Chinese market.
\- There are some EV companies that have folded, namely, Weimar, Nezha and Ji Yue. There are some others, but I am not familiar with its names. As such, Chinese consumers would be wary of yet another new EV name. NIO itself is a new EV brand and I believe Onvo from NIO Group would not give it as much confidence to the Chinese consumers new to EV.
\- A lot of Chinese consumers new to EV are still having wrong understanding of EV safety. ICE vehicles having an implosion occurs more often than EV vehicles implosion. However, the latter goes to news a lot more often because this is new and novel.
With NIO NT2.5 being higher in pricing than NT2.0's offerings, I expect Onvo to sell well.
The true NIO experience starts from NT3.0 platform, chiefly comprising of ES7, EC7, ES8, EC8, ET7, ET9.
Once you sit on the air-suspension platform, it is a smoother ride than the mechanical-suspension platforms offered by ES6, EC6, ET5, ET5T.
Also, on the air-suspension platform, at every OTA upgrades, you have fine-tunings of the air-suspension platform as it's linked to its smart software ecosystem.
This isn't available for its mechanical-suspension / spring-suspension offerings on ES6, EC6, ET5, ET5T.
That said, ET5 is meant to be a sporty car, so being on a spring-suspension is the correct option for speed and road-feedback.
Most of the average car buyers' budget are between 150k to 200k RMB.
This is the price target of Onvo's pricing, with BAAS, Onvo L60 is at 150k RMB.
Give it time and I expect Onvo to have wider market acceptance.
With the current aggression through the US-imposed tariffs on China, I expect Tesla to suffer in its sales for Model 3 and Model Y in China.
Having battery-swap as an alternative, I expect this to be bullish for NIO Group's sales.
This is a deep compounding factor that is promoted on every Chinese public-holiday.
I also expect Onvo to sell well in the export market.
It's a no brainer that for every American offering, a Chinese alternative would provide more value.
Tesla was selling well in some markets, till BYD came in and took their market share.
However, Onvo is a more premium offering than BYD.
Even without battery swap stations available in the export-market, I expect Onvo & Firefly to beat Tesla as the value-buy, while not compromising on safety.
Firefly is designed to be the 2nd EV in the affluent Chinese family's stable.
ES6 can be pretty intimidating for a girl to drive.
ET5, ET5T can be alot easier for them to drive.
I expect Firefly to be very popular for girls, yuppies and places with very tight roads, such as southern Europe and Japan.
For those with even lower budget than Onvo, but they still desire a premium high-end experience from NIO, there's the Firefly EV to choose from.
Firefly is priced at 120k RMB with the full battery purchase.
The Chinese market is extremely competitive at the 100k to 120k RMB price-range.
But at 120k RMB without BAAS and allowing the consumers to experience luxury, I believe this is a smart move.
I expect Onvo and Firefly to be the volume-sellers of NIO Group.
For those with tighter budget but they want to be associated with luxury, they would go for the NT2.5 offerings of NIO EVs.
For those where money isn't much of a concern, they would only go for the air-suspension NIO EVs. ( ES7, EC7, ES8. )
For those who only wants the best of the best, they would only settle for ET7 or ET9.
A lot of investors do not understand why is NIO putting out so many models?
Just like BBA auto-legacy brands, they provide a lot of segmentations for their brands too.
As such, after I looked into it, NIO took a more prudent approach to do the same than to just offer a Model T from Ford and expect it to take off. That would have been terribly reckless to just bank on 1 model to take off. Take note, this isn't the internet-based business, i.e. Google, Facebook, Tiktok, where the winner takes all. It doesn't happen that way for automobiles. Even with Benz, you have Maybach, AMG, etc springing out as a more segmented and more premium offering. This is the key reason why William Li wanted to have a flagship NIO that signatures the flagship luxury sedan, i.e. ET9, that people can associate with the EV version of what Maybach represents for the ICE universe.
Again, chart NIO's progress with the number of battery-swap stations successfully built in China.
It will be a fantastic milestone if NIO can roll out 4,000 battery-swap stations by 2025, 5,000 battery-swap stations by 2026. & hopefully, 10,000 battery-swap stations by 2030.
If you do not have a 5 years holding horizon for NIO as a stock-holder, I would suggest you give it a miss.
When a business is building its basic infrastructure, it is the B E S T time to invest.
It's current price to sales ratio is ridiculous at 0.8, below 1.0.
How would the world's most advanced luxury sedan, ET9, have a price to sales ratio under 1.0???
That said, Westerners have a general derogatory view of Chinese though the former is trapped in a welfare mindset. This is the coming of the Asian century as we break away from uni-polar world of American Exceptionalism, as US dominance comes to an eventual end as they failed to reskill their bottom 50% since the Reagan years.
Even if factories are going back to US, it will be those that's almost fully automated. It will still leave out the bottom 50% of the American population. Their government would continue to blame it on China and other developing regions, such as India and SE Asia, etc.
By 2050, UN projects China, India and SE Asia to be in the top 5 spots for the most developed economies together with US.
At the end of the day, the only reason why China is compounding is because it doesn't flirt with welfare concepts that bankrupts the state. It has long-term government that thinks for long-term public interest of its people. In form, it's communist. In substance, China is by far a more capitalistic society than others, who are unfamiliar with it.
China and India dominated the global GDP of the world, before the advent of the West with their gunpowder and canons, these 2 were Chinese inventions too.
I am a long NIO, but I have come to the realisation that it requires 2028-2030 for it to fulfil its multi-bagger potential.
@ US$4, where it's deemed a penny stock under the definition of US exchanges, it is a no-brainer buy.
( A stock is a penny-stock if it's under US$5/share and having less than a certain figure for total market cap. )
I see US$25-35 as a fair long-term valuation of NIO Group.
As such, a conservative 5X is easily achieved from NIO @ US$4/share.
For shorts, please short NIO to $1 or lower, if you have the cash.
I encourage the shorts to continue to follow their heart.
It is necessary for the market to express itself itself.
NIO can only do one thing to price itself right, i.e. profitability.
That said, Amazon refused and rejected reporting profitability for many years, no?
NIO is in its basic infrastructure building phase, exercise patience and be rewarded with "pay"tience.
My simple axiom, in life, make it life-changing!!!
My final post for 2025.